Election 2024 Updates: Trump Wins Pennsylvania—Making Victory Near-Certain

As voters make their final choices between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—and in hundreds of congressional and state races, and ballot issues—Forbes will compile the biggest stories from the best news sources right here, until it’s all over.

Trump Wins Pennsylvania

Trump won Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes just before 2:30 a.m. EST Wednesday, according to the Associated Press, giving him a total of 267 electoral votes—three shy of the presidency—and essentially erasing any path to victory for Harris, making him all but certain to win the White House. Alaska’s three votes would clinch his victory—the AP hasn’t called the state for him yet, but he’s favored.

Trump Has Significant Lead In PA

Trump is ahead by nearly 200,000 votes in the crucial swing state that would almost certainly put him over the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency, with 95% of votes counted. Unless something significant changes, Trump appears poised to flip Pennsylvania after President Joe Biden beat him there in 2020, and unofficial vote totals show he’s outperforming his 2020 margins in Philadelphia and its four collar counties. The Associated Press has not called a winner in the state.

Trump Ahead In All 7 Swing States

After winning North Carolina and Georgia, according to the Associated Press, Trump is ahead by two points in Georgia with 94% of votes counted, three points in Pennsylvania with 94% of votes counted, six points in Michigan with 68% counted, four points in Wisconsin with 89% counted and four points in Nevada with 78% counted.

Trump Leads In Nevada

Trump is up three points in Nevada just after 1 a.m. EST Wednesday, with 75% of votes counted, according to the Associated Press. The state is the last battleground to begin reporting results and the latest to indicate Trump has a significant advantage over Harris, as the AP has called North Carolina and Georgia for the former president and he leads in every other swing state.

Trump Claims Second Swing State

Trump leaped closer to victory just after 1 a.m. EST Wednesday when the AP called Georgia for the former president, giving him 16 more electoral votes, for a total of 247, hours after he won the first swing state, North Carolina. Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes has widened as he is leading in four other battlegrounds, including Pennsylvania, with 90% of votes counted in the state that would put him over the electoral vote threshold to win the White House.

Trump Leads In Arab-American City

Trump has secured a major lead in Dearborn, Michigan, which is home to a large group of Arab-American voters, where the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza has been extremely unpopular. According to data released by the city’s election office, Trump has secured 46.1% of the vote, compared to Harris’ 31%, with nearly 40% of the ballots counted. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, who has courted the “Uncommitted” movement in the city, is at 19.5%.

Harris Addressing Supporters Wednesday

Harris will not address her supporters on election night, but will speak later Wednesday, Harris campaign co-chair, former Rep. Cedric Richmond, D-La., told Harris supporters gathered at her alma mater, Howard University, on Tuesday. Her path to the presidency appears to have narrowed with Trump winning North Carolina and leading in five other battlegrounds. Richmond, notably, did not express any sense of optimism but said “we will continue overnight to fight to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice has spoken.”

Republicans Win Senate

The GOP will regain control of the Senate the Associated Press projected Tuesday, flipping seats in West Virginia and Ohio—where Trump ally Bernie Moreno ousted three-term incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown—and fending off competitive challengers in Nebraska, Texas and Florida to win the upper chamber for the first time in four years. Democrats held a narrow 51-49 seat majority for the past two years.

Harris Camp: ‘We Feel Good’

Harris Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon expressed optimism about Harris’ chances of winning the northern battleground states in an email to staff obtained by Forbes and sent just before 11 p.m. Tuesday, prior to The Associated Press calling North Carolina for Trump. O’Malley Dillon said the campaign has “known all along” that the blue wall—Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—was their “clearest path.” She said Harris’ campaign anticipates higher-than-expected turnout in Philadelphia and strong turnout in Detroit, but doesn’t expect results from Wisconsin until after 3 a.m. Wednesday, insisting “the closeness of the race is exactly what we prepared for.” Harris trails Trump in all three northern battleground states, but the AP has not called a winner yet.

Trump Wins North Carolina

Trump has won North Carolina, the first swing state race called by The Associated Press Tuesday at 11:20 p.m., taking North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes and bringing Trump’s total count to 230 while Harris has 187—and ending Harris’ gambit to become the first Democrat to win the state since 2008.

Trump Leads In Most Swing States

As of 11 p.m., Trump has taken narrow leads in Pennsylvania (67% of votes were counted), Wisconsin (59% counted), Michigan (27%), Georgia (90%), Arizona (50%) and North Carolina (86%). Results in Nevada are still pending. The Associated Press has not called winners in any swing states.

Most Swing State Polls Close

Nevada was the last swing state to close its polls at 10 p.m. EST Tuesday, but results in all seven battlegrounds were still pending. Trump has taken a narrow lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with 54% and 48% of votes counted, while Harris slightly leads in Michigan and Arizona (20% and 48% counted, respectively). Trump also leads in North Carolina and Georgia, which have counted most of their ballots but are still too close to call. Meanwhile, some polls in Arizona were extended to 11 p.m. EST after printer and voting machine malfunctions, and voters remain in line in parts of Nevada.

Trump Wins 18th State

Trump now has a 188-99 lead in the electoral college, as The Associated Press called Missouri for Trump just before 10 p.m. EST—but all seven crucial battlegrounds are too close to call.

Voting Hours Extended At Some AZ

Nine polling locations in Apache County, Ariz., will stay open two hours longer, until 9 p.m. MST, a state judge ruled Tuesday after reported printer and voting machine failures earlier in the day.

Harris Wins Fewer Latinos Than Biden

Latino voters favored Harris at the polls, but less so than President Joe Biden, according to a CNN exit poll that found slightly more than half of Latino voters cast their ballots for Harris, compared to 65% for Biden—while Trump won Latino men, a demographic Biden won in 2020.

Trump Passes 75% On Betting Market

Trump’s odds of winning according to betting site Polymarket have soared above 75%—though it remains to be seen if the site will be predictive of the winner.

PA Bomb Threats

A building in Bellefonte, Pa., that houses the Centre County Elections Office was temporarily evacuated after the elections office received a bomb threat that was deemed non-credible, officials said, noting it’s one of roughly a dozen Pennsylvania counties to receive bomb threats Tuesday. Polling places in several other swing states have faced non-credible bomb threats, which the FBI blamed on actors in Russia.

Eight More States Called

Trump won Texas, Ohio, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana and Wyoming, and Harris won New York in the AP’s latest round of calls made at about 9 p.m. EST.

GOP’s Robinson Loses N.C. Gov. Race

Democrat Josh Stein beat Trump-backed Republican Mark Robinson to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, according to the Associated Press. Robinson came under fire in September when CNN reported he made a string of racist and sexually graphic remarks on a pornographic website chat forum before his entrance into politics, including referring to himself as a “black NAZI” (Robinson has denied the allegations).

Harris Wins Illinois

Harris claimed the state’s 19 electoral votes, the AP said at 8:38 p.m. EST.

Trump, Harris Pick Up More States

Trump now leads the electoral map 101-52 as of 8:30 p.m. EST, as The Associated Press called Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas for Trump, and Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, New Jersey and Delaware for Harris. None of these results are surprising, and the AP has not made any calls in competitive states.

West Virginia Called For Trump

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner of West Virginia around 7:30 p.m. EST, the third state called for Trump—another expected result.

Republicans Pick Up A Senate Seat In West Virginia

Gov. Jim Justice decisively beat Democrat Glenn Elliott to fill the seat held by retiring Democrat-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin, according to the Associated Press, an expected pick-up for Republicans in the upper chamber that puts the GOP within striking distance of taking a Senate majority.

First States Called

As expected, The Associated Press called Vermont for Harris, and Kentucky and Indiana for Trump, just after 7 p.m. EST Tuesday.

Trump Selling Merch On Election

A Trump-linked entity emailed supporters on Election Day to sell Trump-themed merchandise, Forbes reports.

More Bomb Threats

Voting has been suspended at five polling locations in DeKalb County after receiving bomb threats and they will seek to extend voting hours there, the county confirmed Tuesday night, after other bomb threats—linked to Russia—were reported in the state earlier in the day. Arizona officials said threats were also reported at four locations in Navajo County, which officials said they believed were linked to Russia.

First Votes Coming In

The first election results of the presidential race are coming in from Indiana and Kentucky, after polling closed in only some precincts at 6 p.m. EST. Early results show Trump with a commanding lead in the GOP-leaning states, per the Associated Press, though with only 5% or less of the estimated total votes counted, it’s still too early to predict how the results will pan out.

Milwaukee Recounting Ballots

Election results in Milwaukee are expected to be delayed, as the city’s election commission said it will recount 31,000 ballots. The ballots—representing approximately a third of all mail-in ballots in the city—are being recounted out of an abundance of caution after workers noticed doors on the tabulation machines weren’t properly closed, The New York Times reports.

Trump’s Fraud Claims Struck Down

Philadelphia City Commissioner Seth Bluestein and District Attorney Larry Krasner struck down Trump’s claims on Truth Social on Tuesday that there’s “a lot of talk about massive CHEATING in Philadelphia,” as the ex-president and his allies have pushed numerous false fraud claims in the state. “There is absolutely no truth to this allegation,” Bluestein said, calling voting in the city “safe and secure,” while Krasner said there’s “no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation.”

White Voters Move On From Trump

NBC’s exit polling suggests white voters are moving away from supporting Trump while minority voters are doing the opposite. White voters went from 57% supporting Trump in 2020 to 49% now, while Latino voters went from 38% to 42% and Black voters from 10% to 14%. More voters are also now in favor of deporting “most” undocumented immigrants relative to 2016, NBC found, going up from 25% support to 39%.

First Exit Poll Data Comes In

NBC News and CNN released their first exit pollresults, with both networks finding that voters’ most important issue is democracy (35%), followed by 31% prioritizing the economy and 14% choosing abortion. Both networks also found voters had a pessimistic view of the state of the nation, with approximately 40% telling CNN they’re dissatisfied and 43% saying the same to NBC, with 29% saying they’re “angry.”

Trump Blocks Reporter Access

Reporters from multiple news outlets including Politico, Axios, Mother Jones and Puck were denied credentials or had their credentials revoked for Trump’s election night event in West Palm Beach, Florida. The denials came after the outlets published critical coverage of the former president, according to CNN. Other outlets are still expected to attend the event.

Michigan Polling Place Closes

A polling place in the swing state of Michigan was closed Tuesday afternoon following reports of a natural gas leak, according to the Associated Press. Voters were sent to different area precincts to cast their ballots.

Georgia Polling Place Evacuated

A polling location in the suburban Atlanta area of Gwinnett County was closed for about an hour Tuesday afternoon due to a non-credible bomb threat, CNN reported. The Georgia Secretary of State’s office has filed with a judge to extend polling hours at the swing state voting location to make up for the lost time.

Man Arrested Over Attack Threat

A 25-year-old man was arrested and federally charged in Michigan on Tuesday after threatening to attack conservatives with a “stolen” automatic weapon if Trump wins the 2024 election, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Michigan.

Arizona Voters Turned Away

A county in the swing state of Arizona that houses the Navajo Nation and the Fort Apache Indian Reservation is experiencing hours-long wait times at the polls and some voters were turned away Tuesday due to issues with faulty voting machines, CNN reported.

Rep. Shares Misleading Election Map

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, R-Fla., on Tuesday shared a graphic showing Trump as the projected electoral college winner that misinformation tracking company Alethea told The Washington Post is meant to “preemptively cast doubt on election results in the event that former President Trump loses.”

Man Arrested Outside U.S. Capitol

A man who was stopped during the security screening process at the Capitol Visitor Center “smelled like fuel” and was in possession of a torch, flare gun and two containers that smelled like gasoline, U.S. Capitol Police said Tuesday. The visitor center will remain closed for the rest of the day as an investigation is conducted.

Musk To Join Trump At Mar-A-Lago

Billionaire Trump supporter Elon Musk will spend at least part of election night with the candidate at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla., part of a small group of people who will watch the results roll in live with the former president, The New York Times reported.

Cambia, PA Polls Open Until 10 p.m.

Polls in the rural county of Cambria in Pennsylvania—which could be an important district in the swing state for Trump—will remain open until 10 p.m. Tuesday to make up for hours lost when a morning software malfunction hampered voting. Trump won 68.1% of the Cambria county vote in 2020.

Russia Linked To Bomb Threats

Bomb threats that temporarily closed two polling places in a majority Black district in the swing state of Georgia were “of Russian origin,” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said, adding, “They’re up to mischief, it seems, and they don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election.”

Trump Votes In Florida

Trump cast his vote in Palm Beach, Fla. late Tuesday morning alongside his wife, Melania. He said it is an “absolute outrage” that votes may not be counted until several days after the election, but said he felt “very confident” in his chances of winning.

Russia Paid Pro-Trump Influencer

A pro-Trump social media influencer (who uses the @AlphaFox78 handle on X) said he was paid multiple times by a Russian propagandist to post a fake video about the election that spread lies about voter fraud.

Betting Markets Favor Trump, But…

Poll-based prediction sites FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin give the (tiny) advantage to Harris. Here’s the breakdown.

Harris, Trump Split Dixville Notch

Harris and former President Donald Trump each secured three votes in the small New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch, which concluded its long-running tradition of being the first in the country to declare its results—although the town’s results have historically been far from predictive of any national result.

Trump, Vance End On Dark Note

Former President Donald Trump hurled insults at former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi at his campaign’s closing rally in Michigan that stretched into early Tuesday, while his running mate Sen. JD Vance described Vice President Kamala Harris as “trash” at an earlier rally on Monday evening.

Key Background

Tuesday marks the culmination of one of the most chaotic election cycles in history: A former president, convicted of felonies and facing dozens of other criminal charges, challenges a vice president who was elevated to the top of the ticket after the primaries when President Joe Biden, 81, bowed out of the race following a pressure campaign from within his own party. Harris would be the first woman elected president, and Trump would be the oldest. Polls show the race is deadlocked nationally and in the seven swing states set to decide the election, after Trump led President Joe Biden in surveys before his exit and Harris carved out an early lead after her entrance into the contest.

What To Watch For

Republicans are poised to retake the Senate, though the House is more of a toss-up. In the Senate, where Democrats have a razor-thin 51-49 seat majority, 23 Democrat-held seats are up for re-election, compared to just 11 held by Republicans, none of which are rated toss-ups by Cook Political Report. In the House, where Republicans hold a 221-214 majority, Republicans have a 51% chance of maintaining control, according to Five Thirty Eight, while Democrats would win control 49 times out of 100.

When Do Polls Close?

The first polls close in eastern Kentucky and most of Indiana at 6 p.m. But the real indicators of who might win won’t come until later in the night, when the seven swing states begin releasing counts, with Georgia and North Carolina likely the first to report results.

Source: Forbes