PSG vs Bayern Munich Preview: Probable Lineups, Prediction, Tactics, Team News & Key Stats.

PSG and Bayern Munich meet at the Parc des Princes for a star-studded first-leg encounter in the Champions League Round of 16 tie on Tuesday night in what will be a repeat of the 2020 UCL final.

The UEFA Champions League is back, and the round of 16 kicks off with a mouthwatering heavyweight showdown between the reigning champions of France and Germany. PSG and Bayern Munich have produced some memorable encounters in recent years, and this one promises to be no different. So, forget about Valentine’s Day and plans, if you have any, and buckle your seats for yet another classic.

Since the Qatari Sports Investment takeover in 2011, the Champions League has been the ever-elusive holy grail for the Paris giants, but a string of close calls and unprecedented exits has been the theme of their hunt as of yet.

All the millions and billions spent by the club’s uber-rich owners have been aimed at conquering Europe. With Lionel Messi, the Greatest Footballer of All-Time, among their ranks and still producing some of the best football of his career, as well as the mercurial Neymar and Kylian Mbappe starting to gel together. Could this finally be the breakthrough year? Only time will tell!

One thing is for sure: PSG are not in a good moment ahead of this encounter against Bayern. The Parisians have endured a tricky start to 2023 and head into Europe off the back of back-to-back losses. Defeats at Marseille and Monaco have dented the French champions’ brilliance this term, but it’s unwise to dismiss them straightaway, especially when they can possibly line up the world’s deadliest front three.

While PSG’s poor form has made Bayern favourites, it’s worth noting that the visitors have dropped points in half of their games since returning to action, playing out three consecutive 1-1 league draws to start 2023.

Since then, the Bavarians have picked up their form and have registered comprehensive wins in all of their last three games with a combined score of 11-2. However, tearing apart some middling to sluggish German teams to face an elite side in Paris Saint-Germain is a different kettle of fish altogether and hardly good preparation for a high-stakes game.

Having said that, Bayern have a distinct type of pedigree in European football. Their journey in the Champions League this season has been perfect, as they have won all six of their group-stage matches, defeating tough teams like Bayern and Inter on two different occasions.

These two sides met in the 2020 final and went head-to-head again in the 2021 quarterfinals. The French heavyweights have put up a good fight against their German counterparts across those meetings and even knocked Bayern out of the Champions League on away goals in 2021 after the tie finished 3-3 on aggregate after failing to get over the line the year before in the final.

Ahead of the latest meeting between the two European juggernauts, The Hard Tackle takes a closer look at the blockbuster encounter in Paris.

Team News & Tactics

PSG

📸🔴🔵

Découvrez les photos de la séance du jour avant #PSGFCB en @ChampionsLeague ⤵️

— Paris Saint-Germain (@PSG_inside) February 13, 2023

There has been huge controversy and conflicting reports around Kylian Mbappe’s availability for this match. PSG boss Christophe Galtier is apparently sweating over the fitness of his talismanic superstar, who has scored 25 goals in 26 games this season. The 24-year-old missed PSG’s last three competitive games after picking up a muscle injury against Montpellier in early February.

While he has not yet been declared fit to feature in the Bayern clash, there is now real hope that he could be ready in time after he took part in a small training session on Sunday, according to French newspaper L’Equipe.

Le Parisien has gone one step further and is reporting that the mercurial Frenchman will be included in PSG’s squad to face Bayern, despite Galtier claiming that he will not be risked or rushed back.

It remains to be seen if Mbappe does make an appearance here, but full-back Nordi Mukiele (hamstring), centre-back Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles), and central midfielder Renato Sanches (hamstring) are certain to miss out through their respective injury problems.

Meanwhile, Galtier has revealed that Lionel Messi will return to action after missing Saturday’s dismal 3-1 defeat to Monaco with a hamstring problem, while combative midfielders Marco Verratti and Fabian Ruiz are back available after missing the same match due to a hip problem and illness, respectively.

They are both guaranteed to return to fold against Bayern, forming the PSG midfield unit alongside destroyer Danilo Pereira, who could be instrumental in breaking Bayern’s rhythm with his snappy tackling and defensive nous.

In contrast, attacking midfielder Vitinha will look to exploit half-spaces in the opposition’s defence, and unlock gaps with his incisive passing and through balls, as well as provide forward thrust with his buzzing energy.

Galtier used a back-three system against Monaco but could revert to a four-man backline here, with Sergio Ramos and Marquinhos set to form the central defensive partnership in front of Gianluigi Donnarumma in the PSG goal.

Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes should occupy their preferred full-back roles. Both of them will need to be at their best if they are to stop the visitors from creating too many chances from the wide areas, especially with Jamal Musiala drifting all over the attacking third in a free role.

Elsewhere in attack, plenty of eyes will be on Neymar, who will carry a major share of the goal-scoring workload in Mbappe’s absence, at least from the start. PSG supporters will be hoping that the Brazilian ace will rise to the occasion and deliver a match-winning display on this demanding stage, especially given his stellar form this season.

If Mbappe or Hugo Ekitike are introduced in the latter stages of the game, Messi will drop back into the number 10 role, where his passing and creativity could be useful in unleashing runners in behind the opposing backline.

Probable Lineup (4-3-1-2): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Ramos, Mendes; Verratti, Pereira, Ruiz; Vitinha; Messi, Neymar

Bayern Munich

Touchdown in Paris 🇫🇷📍#packmas #PSGFCB pic.twitter.com/s3kDG5Q46v

— FC Bayern Munich (@FCBayernEN) February 13, 2023

Sadio Mane (leg), Noussair Mazraoui (heart), Manuel Neuer (leg), and Lucas Hernandez (knee) will all miss out and won’t feature here at all, with the latter two being ruled out with long-term injuries, while Ryan Gravenberch (knee) is also a serious doubt and is unlikely to start if fit anyway.

Bayern head coach Julian Nagelsmann loves to switch things up tactically, so it may be tough to predict how the Bavarians will line up in Paris. He played a back-three with a single pivot and as many as six attackers, with two forwards and new signing Joao Cancelo effectively operating as an inverted full-back.

We predict he will opt for a flat-back four with two holding midfielders to avoid being outnumbered in the middle of the park, but don’t be surprised if it turns out to be a 4-3-3 or something more unorthodox.

What remains a certainty is that both January recruits, goalkeeper Yann Sommer and versatile defender Joao Cancelo, will make their first Champions League appearances for Bayern when they make the trip to the Parc des Princes. In Hernandez’s injury absence, Dayot Upamecano will have Matthijs De Ligt for company at the heart of the Bayern Munich defence, with Cancelo and Alphonso Davies being the full-back pairing.

As ever, Joshua Kimmich will play in the holding midfield position and is integral to the way Nagelsmann’s side play. His efforts may go undetected given his relatively low offensive output, but he’s heavily involved in their attacking open-play sequences and also has an eye for a key pass, coupled with an astute tactical understanding of the game.

As such, Kimmich’s partner-in-crime, Leon Goretzka, has excelled this season when it comes to providing goals and assists from the centre of the park, with 10 goal contributions to his name across all competitions.

Meanwhile, wonderkid Jamal Musiala will operate in a hybrid number 8/10 role ahead of the double pivot, flanked by the electric presence of Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman flitting in and out of wide forward and conventional winger roles.

Up front, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting will spearhead the attack, having scored three goals in his four Champions League appearances this season. The 33-year-old Cameroonian hitman is in the form of his life, and his goal-scoring exploits have helped Bayern plug the gap left by the departure of Robert Lewandowski last summer.

He’ll be chomping at the bit to add to his goal tally against one of his elite former clubs as he continues to enjoy a remarkable end to his career. Speaking of ageing like a fine wine, Thomas Muller is having another influential and productive season for Die Roten, and will look to make a positive impact off the bench.

Probable Lineup (4-2-3-1): Sommer; Cancelo, De Ligt, Upamecano, Davies; Goretzka, Kimmich; Sane, Musiala, Coman; Choupo-Moting

Key Stats

• Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich have faced each other 11 times in the past, with all of the meetings coming in the UEFA Champions League. The teams are separated by only one win (six for PSG and five for Bayern).
• PSG have only lost one of their five UEFA Champions League home games against Bayern Munich.
• Bayern Munich have won all six of their games in the UEFA Champions League so far this term, firing 18 goals and conceding only twice in response.
• Paris Saint-Germain are the only team to have reached the knockout stage of this season’s UEFA Champions League without keeping a clean sheet.
• Messi enters this clash in fine form, having netted 10 goals across his last 13 games for club and country.

Player to Watch

Leroy Sane

Global superstars like Kylian Mbappe, Neymar, Lionel Messi, Serge Gnabry, and Jamal Musiala will share a pitch at the Parc de Prince in this monumental first-leg tie. You might be surprised to see Leroy Sane as our first choice, but the 26-year-old has been a lethal weapon for Bayern in the Champions League this season, where he has netted four times.

Sane’s blistering pace and ability to beat his marker one-on-one could make him a dangerous counter-attacking force in Paris, especially now that he has Cancelo to foray forward and offer width behind him.

With Sadio Mane still injured and likely to miss the first leg against PSG in France, Sane’s dazzling dribbles, energy, and creative movement behind opposing defences become more essential tools in the Bavarians’ inventory.

Prediction

PSG 2-3 Bayern Munich

Champions League nights do not come much more enticing than this. To say these two have goals in their locker rooms is an understatement given the abundance of attacking options at both managers’ disposal.

Both Bayern and PSG rarely had to move out of third gear to assert their domestic dominance in recent years, leading to an attacking tactical mentality that leaves them soft at the back, resulting in both producing some shocking results in their respective leagues, albeit Bayern have hit form just before entering this clash.

Yet, their backlines are not well-equipped for the ferocity of world-beating attacks. That should lead to plenty of goals. The Bavarians have looked much more balanced in attack and defence following the winter arrival of Cancelo.

The Hard Tackle predicts the visitors will get the job done here in a closely contested encounter with many back-and-forth momentum swings and come away with a one-goal advantage heading into the second leg at the Allianz Arena next midweek.