GENERAL
The world in brief.
Gazprom, Russia’s state-controlled energy giant, said it had cut off deliveries of gas to its Bulgarian and Polish counterparts. Locked out of most dollar trades, Russia has demanded that “unfriendly” buyers pay for their gas in roubles. Poland has refused to do so. Almost half of Poland’s gas, and 90% of Bulgaria’s, is from Russia. Polish officials reassured citizens that it can access gas from other sources. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said Russia’s action was “unjustified and unacceptable”, that it was using gas as “an instrument of blackmail.”
The UN said it had secured an agreement “in principle” from Russia to involve the UN and the Red Cross in evacuating civilians from Mariupol, where at least a thousand are sheltering in the Azovstal steel plant. Previous agreements amounted to naught. At a meeting in Moscow, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, told the UN’s secretary-general that he had been “deceived” about the situation there and that Russia was already operating humanitarian corridors.
A Chinese drone manufacturer—the world’s largest—said that it would temporarily suspend business in Russia and Ukraine, becoming the first major Chinese firm to halt sales in Russia because of the conflict. DJI Technology Co, which research firm Drone Analyst estimates had hardware revenues of $2.9bn in 2020, said it “abhors any use of our drones to cause harm”. It denied Ukrainian allegations that it leaked military data to Russia.
Shares in Tesla, an electric-car maker, dropped by 12.2% on Tuesday—a loss of $126bn— after it was announced that Elon Musk, the company’s chief executive, was buying Twitter. Investors speculate that Mr Musk will reduce his stake in Tesla to stump up the cash he has promised for the social network ($21bn of the $44bn buyout).
Nagaenthran Dharmalingam, an intellectually disabled Malaysian, was executed in Singapore on a drug trafficking conviction, despite international appeals for clemency. Mr Dharmalingam, who had an IQ of 69, had been on death row for more than a decade after being caught smuggling 44g of heroin into Singapore in 2009. The government said he “clearly understood the nature of his acts”.
A court in Myanmar found Aung San Suu Kyi guilty of corruption in the latest verdict in a series of farcical trials against the country’s former de facto leader. In a closed door hearing, a junta court found her guilty of accepting a $600,000 bribe and sentenced her to five years in jail. That extends her total prison sentence to 11 years. Should she be found guilty of all her charges, she would face more than 190 years in jail, according to some estimates.
A suicide-bomber blew up a minibus near Karachi University, killing three Chinese nationals and their driver in Pakistan’s commercial capital. The victims were staff at the local Confucius Institute, a promoter of China’s soft power. Separatists called the Baloch Liberation Army, who oppose enormous Chinese development projects in Pakistan’s vast and rugged Balochistan province, claimed responsibility.
Fact of the day: $174bn, the value of India’s dairy industry—75m dairy farmers, 200m cows and 100m buffaloes produce a fifth of the world’s milk.
A Ukrainian military adviser talks to The Economist
For many outside Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky is the face of the war. For many inside it, so is Oleksiy Arestovych. His sardonic daily military updates have calmed the nation during some of its darkest hours, and even raised a few chuckles.
In 2019 Mr Arestovych predicted a major Russian invasion of Ukraine by 2022. He was correct down to the grimmest of details. Talking to The Economist in Kyiv, he argues that the deciding phase of the war will last no more than three more weeks. The most serious battles are already under way in Donbas. Despite Russia assembling 25,000 troops for the main axis of attack, Mr Arestovych says Ukraine can hold out. Russia’s insistence on sticking to outdated doctrines, against unrealistic deadlines set by a detached leader, will prove its downfall, he predicts. He highlights a divergence in spirit between the Ukrainian and invading troops. “We have a Cossack drive. We cackle with laughter when we shoot Russian tanks.”
Big tech’s big hangover
American tech firms led the way during the pandemic equities boom. Now they are at the forefront of the subsequent slump. The share prices of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft have all lost ground this year, after stellar performances in 2020 and 2021. On Tuesday Alphabet reported slowing revenue growth in the first quarter of 2022 (though Microsoft was able to forecast double-digit growth for next year). Wednesday is Meta’s turn, before Amazon and Apple report on Thursday.
Each firm is unhappy in its own way. Amazon, for instance, was better off when lockdowns forced people into e-commerce. Meta has been walloped by new ad-tracking rules. But there are a few common woes. The war in Ukraine has pulled back advertising budgets. Ostracising Russia (or being kicked out) has meant losing an entire market. China’s lockdowns have impeded supply chains. And a frail global economy, with rising inflation, has cut into consumers’ budgets and raised labour costs. Expect earnings to be bumpy.
The challenges to India’s wheat exports
When Russia invaded Ukraine, wheat farmers in India were collateral beneficiaries. Before the war the ex-Soviet adversaries were respectively the largest and fifth-largest wheat exporters, together accounting for 29% of annual international sales. As their exports fell, India spied an opportunity.
Its wheat exports are rising quickly. Between March 2021 and March 2022 India exported 7.9m tonnes. One estimate suggests volumes could treble this year. And they are reaching new markets. On Friday a first-ever shipment of Indian wheat will be sent to Egypt. But it may not be all smooth sailing. Traders are worried that the quality of Indian wheat might not meet more stringent standards abroad. And World Trade Organisation rules prevent the sale of wheat bought at fixed prices, of which India has 19m tonnes. But the biggest hurdle may be nature. The hottest March in 122 years shrivelled the harvest by at least 10% in several states. With yields down and exports up, ensuring enough supply for Indians themselves is critical.
Hoping for a lift at Boeing
Lately Boeing’s investors have had little to celebrate. The American aerospace giant reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday, having stumbled through losses of $4.2bn over the last three months of 2021. This drop was exacerbated by one-off charges, including $3.5bn to cover delays to the production of its wide-bodied 787 Dreamliner after defects were noticed by regulators and deliveries were halted in May 2021. Weaknesses in certain titanium parts remain under scrutiny. More than 100 undelivered Dreamliners remain sitting in hangars.
Deliveries of narrow-bodied 737s, including the troubled MAX version, are on the rise, though. And bosses are hopeful that Dreamliner deliveries will begin again later this year. But some damage has already been done. Last week American Airlines, a big customer of Boeing’s, said that the delays were forcing it to cut back on international flights. Investors, travellers and America’s post-pandemic recovery need Boeing to up its game.
Boxing for freedom in “The Survivor”
Harry Haft relied on his knuckles. A muddy slick at Auschwitz served as a ring. His rivals were other prisoners: destitute Jews set against one another by their Nazi captors. Losing a fight meant losing your life. Mr Haft, who was born in Poland, was a teenager when he arrived at the camp; when he escaped, during a “death march” towards the end of the war, he was a survivor of the Holocaust. He moved to America and continued to box, all the while searching for his teenage love. He even fought Rocky Marciano, the heavy-weight boxing legend.
This extraordinary tale is the subject of “The Survivor”, released on Wednesday on HBO Max. Directed by Barry Levinson, the biopic is based on a book by Haft’s son, Alan. Its star, Ben Foster, shed 28kg to play Harry. As Jewish people around the world mark Holocaust Remembrance Day, a film about a man who defied such hulking odds makes timely, powerful viewing.
